Publications and on-going works
The changing face of Manufacturing: Deindustrialisation and industrial recomposition in a long-run perspective (1963-2021)
Industrial policies have returned to fashion, prompting renewed interest in understanding worldwide structural change patterns. As such, this paper leverages a dataset at the manufacturing sub-sectoral level to explore both the scale and timing of industrialisation and deindustrialisation spikes. It also investigate the change in the composition of the manufacturing sector, an aspect traditionally overlooked by the literature. Based on employment and value-added data for 12 manufacturing activities in over 145 countries from 1963 to 2021, our results first show a significant decline in manufacturing trends driven by South America, Europe, North America and Central America. In contrast, Asian countries are pulling ahead, being the fastest-growing industrialisation group. Although most findings confirm that premature deindustrialisation is a genuine threat that does not appear to spare specific industrial groups, the analysis reveals some striking structural transformations ongoing within the manufacturing sector of most developing regions. Lastly, we discuss some specific country cases that illustrate the diversity of structural change patterns in manufacturing.
Deindustrialisation in developing countries and the impact of China’s expansion: Empirical evidence (1995-2015)
➔ With Lorenzo Cassi and Gabriela Carmen Pilay
This paper investigates the extent to which China’s rapid economic rise has influenced the manufacturing sector in developed and developing countries. Drawing on a comprehensive panel dataset covering at country level 12 distinct manufacturing subsectors from 1995 to 2015, we analyze the dynamics of Chinese trade penetration. Preliminary results indicate a negative impact of Chinese imports on domestic manufacturing employment (and output). Specifically, Chinese imports exert direct downward pressure on local markets. More significantly, however, our findings highlight an indirect effect of Chinese competition through heightened rivalry in third-country markets. This indirect impact is particularly evident in sectors where the affected countries have strong specialization, suggesting that Chinese competition intensifies global market pressures, thereby magnifying its influence on domestic industries.