Publications and on-going works

Industrial policies have regained prominence, prompting a renewed interest in exploring patterns of structural change in manufacturing. As such, this paper leverages a unique dataset at the manufacturing sub-sectoral level to explore external and internal trends in manufacturing shares. It specifically discusses the premature deindustrialisation hypothesis by examining the scale and timing of both industrialisation and deindustrialisation spikes. Drawing on employment and value-added data for twelve manufacturing activities in over 145 countries from 1963 to 2018, the results show a significant decline in manufacturing trends driven by South America, Europe, North America, and, to a lesser extent, Central America. In contrast, Asian countries are pulling ahead, being the fastest-growing industrialisation group. While most findings confirm that premature deindustrialisation is a genuine threat not sparing any specific industrial groups, the analysis also reveals some striking structural transformations ongoing within the manufacturing sector of many developing regions, especially in the Middle East and Africa. Overall, combining both the external and internal perspectives highlights the diversity of structural change patterns in manufacturing, thus calling for more tailored industrial policies.

This paper investigates the extent to which China’s rapid economic rise has influenced the manufacturing sector in developed and developing countries. Drawing on a comprehensive panel dataset covering at country level 12 distinct manufacturing subsectors from 1995 to 2015, we analyze the dynamics of Chinese trade penetration. Preliminary results indicate a negative impact of Chinese imports on domestic manufacturing employment (and output). Specifically, Chinese imports exert direct downward pressure on local markets. More significantly, however, our findings highlight an indirect effect of Chinese competition through heightened rivalry in third-country markets. This indirect impact is particularly evident in sectors where the affected countries have strong specialization, suggesting that Chinese competition intensifies global market pressures, thereby magnifying its influence on domestic industries.